🔁 Wash, Rinse, Repeat: A Week of Sunny 70s for Dunlap, Bone-Dry Afternoons for Burn Piles, and No Rain in Sight

Or: A Frosty Plateau Start, Seven Straight Sunny Days, Humidity Near 30%, Permits Still Required, and a Thursday Drought Check

By Thomas Seest, Dunlap.Today · Monday, October 19, 2026

Good Monday morning. It was another chilly start: Weather Service airport sensors show Crossville dipped to about 36 degrees early this morning and Chattanooga to about 41. Morristown’s forecasters expected areas of frost again on parts of the Cumberland Plateau, and some river fog formed along the Tennessee River and a few of its tributaries. Both should be gone once the sun gets to work. Dunlap’s forecast calls for a sunny afternoon with a high near 71.

Here’s the big picture for the week. Morristown’s forecast discussion sums it up in four words: “wash/rinse/repeat each day.” That means sunny skies every day through Sunday, highs from 71 to 76, lows in the mid 40s, light winds and a 0% chance of rain in Dunlap’s forecast. The catch is dry air. Afternoon humidity in Sequatchie County drops to around 30% today. There are still no burn bans in Tennessee, but the state paused permits in eight West Tennessee counties last weekend, a good reminder of how the permit system works. A new Drought Monitor map comes out Thursday. As of this morning there were no watches, warnings or advisories for Dunlap.

⏱️ What this means for you in 30 seconds

• Today: Sunny, high near 71. Tonight clear, near 44.
• This week: Sunny every day. Highs 73, 76, 74, 74, 73, 74 (Tuesday through Sunday); lows 44 to 47.
• Rain: None in the 7-day forecast. Water new plantings and check ponds and troughs.
• Burning: No bans. Free same-day permit required. Small piles, light winds, stay with it.
• Leaves: Plateau color is expected late October; Chattanooga usually peaks around Nov. 2.
• Remember: Clocks fall back Sunday, Nov. 1, less than two weeks away.

🌅 Frost on the Mountain, Fog by the River, Then a Warm Afternoon

Morristown’s Monday discussion noted a “slight improvement in readings by a couple of degrees or so” compared with Sunday morning, but dry air and calm winds still allowed areas of frost on parts of the plateau and mountains. Their key messages add that patchy frost is possible “over the next couple of mornings.” The Hazardous Weather Outlook for Sequatchie, Marion, Hamilton and Bledsoe counties lists frost for this morning only, and says no hazardous weather is expected Tuesday through Sunday.

Dunlap’s own lows stay in the 44 to 47 range all week. Forecasters also noted river fog this morning that “should quickly dissipate with the morning sun.”

What it means for you: Valley gardens are likely fine. If you live up on the mountain or in a low, frosty hollow, check tender plants on Tuesday morning too. For the early drive to work or school, give foggy spots near the water an extra car length and use low beams. Sunrise in Dunlap is about 6:51 a.m. Central today, so the earliest school buses still run in half-light.

👉 Read more (NWS Morristown forecast discussion) · Hazardous Weather Outlook

📅 The Same Nice Day, Seven Times: Your Week at a Glance

Morristown explains that high pressure is parked over our part of the country, with storm systems stuck far off both coasts. Their words: “light winds, mostly sunny/clear skies, low humidity, and no precipitation for at least the foreseeable future.” Dunlap’s grid forecast, updated about 6:06 a.m. Central:

• Tuesday: Sunny, high near 73. Night: mostly clear, near 44.
• Wednesday: Sunny, high near 76, the warmest day. Night: near 45.
• Thursday and Friday: Sunny, highs near 74. Nights near 44.
• Saturday: Sunny, high near 73. Night: near 45.
• Sunday: Sunny, high near 74. Night: near 47.

Local 3 News meteorologist Clay Smith put it plainly Monday morning: “There are no signs of any meaningful rain through at least the end of the month.”

What it means for you: It’s like a radio stuck on your favorite station, pleasant but not much variety. Plan outdoor jobs any day you like: hauling hay, cleaning gutters, splitting firewood, or getting the mower ready for winter storage. Kids still need a jacket at the bus stop, since mornings start in the 40s and afternoons reach the 70s. Sunset is about 6:01 p.m. Central today and about 5:54 p.m. by Sunday, so evening chores keep creeping earlier.

👉 Read more (Dunlap 7-day forecast) · Local 3 News: a fantastic week ahead

💧 Dry Air, Thirsty Ground: The Numbers Behind the Sunshine

Morristown’s fire-weather forecast for Sequatchie County shows afternoon humidity around 27 to 32 percent today and 26 to 31 percent Tuesday, then edging up toward 34 midweek and the upper 40s by Friday through Sunday. The good news: humidity bounces back to about 70 to 75 percent overnight, which forecasters rate “excellent” recovery.

Chattanooga’s climate report shows an odd split. October so far is actually a bit wetter than normal, with 2.71 inches (about 0.60 above), thanks to the soaking early in the month. But since Sept. 1, the airport has only 3.39 inches, nearly 3 inches below normal, and it’s about 9 inches behind for the year. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor (conditions as of Oct. 13) still shows all of Sequatchie County in moderate drought, with about 6% in severe drought. The next map comes out Thursday.

What it means for you: Think of the ground like a cast-iron skillet that’s been on the stove a while: it’s not on fire, but you’d still use a potholder. Give new trees, shrubs and fall pansies a deep drink about once a week, check stock ponds and water troughs, and keep an eye on hay supplies. No need to worry, just pay attention.

👉 Read more (Morristown fire-weather forecast) · Chattanooga climate report · U.S. Drought Monitor: Tennessee

🔥 Burn Permits: Why West Tennessee Got Paused, and What It Means Here

Tennessee’s burn-ban page still reads: “Currently, there are no active burn bans in the State of Tennessee.” But last Friday, WBBJ-TV in Jackson reported that the Division of Forestry would not issue burn permits over the weekend in eight West Tennessee counties (Decatur, Gibson, Henderson, Lake, Obion, Shelby, Weakley and Tipton) after a fire danger statement there. That’s how the system is designed. The state’s own guidance says permits are “issued only when fire danger is at an acceptable level,” and that the Division “temporarily pauses permit issuance until conditions improve” when wind, humidity or dry debris raise the risk.

In the Valley this week, light winds are working in our favor. The Nashville Weather Service office, which covers Middle Tennessee just west of us, noted that winds of 10 mph or less through midweek “will help mitigate overall fire danger.” Sequatchie’s smoke dispersion is poor in the morning and fair in the afternoon today and Tuesday, and very poor overnight, so smoke will hang low after dark.

What it means for you: If you plan to burn leaves or brush, get the free same-day permit at BurnSafeTN.org, in the MyTN app, or by calling 1-877-350-BURN (2876). If the system won’t issue one that day, that’s your answer; try again later. Burn in the early afternoon when smoke lifts best, keep piles small, keep a hose and rake handy, and never leave it. Town residents should check city rules first.

👉 Read more (Tennessee burn-ban status) · WBBJ: West Tennessee permits paused · Division of Forestry fire-prevention tips

🌊 Heading to the Coast? Check the Forecast There First

Our sunshine has a neighbor causing trouble elsewhere. Morristown’s discussion mentions a slow-moving storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast that “will bring coastal issues to parts of the Eastern Seaboard due to hardly any movement,” before it gets pushed out to sea toward the end of the week. For us, forecasters say: “No impacts here.”

What it means for you: Nothing changes in the Valley. But if you have fall-break plans or family visits on the Carolina, Virginia or Mid-Atlantic coast this week, check the local National Weather Service forecast for that town before you pack, the same way you’d call ahead before driving to a store that might be closed.

👉 Read more (NWS Morristown forecast discussion) · National Weather Service: find any local forecast

🍁 Leaves, Hunters and the Calendar: What’s Coming Up

Tennessee State Parks suggests late October for fall color on the Cumberland Plateau. Down at Chattanooga’s elevation, the Leaves.com model says color typically starts around Oct. 21, peaks around Nov. 2 and looks best from roughly Oct. 29 to Nov. 6 in a normal year. A sunny week like this one is ideal for a drive.

A few hunting dates from TWRA’s statewide summary:

• Canada geese: the current segment ends Thursday, Oct. 22.
• Fall turkey and archery deer: open through Oct. 30.
• Young Sportsman deer hunt (ages 6 to 16): Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, with a non-hunting adult 21 or older.

And daylight saving time ends at 2 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 1, according to the U.S. Naval Observatory.

What it means for you: Leaf lookers, the next two weekends look like the sweet spot on the plateau, and weekdays are usually less crowded. Hunters, dry leaves crunch loud, so move slowly, wear blaze orange when walking, and be extra careful with campfires and cigarettes in dry woods.

👉 Read more (Tennessee State Parks fall color guide) · Leaves.com: Chattanooga foliage · TWRA hunting seasons summary

✅ Your Monday-to-Sunday Checklist

• ✅ Monday and Tuesday mornings: On the mountain or in a frost pocket? Check tender plants. Watch for fog near the river on the early drive.
• ✅ School mornings all week: Jacket at the bus stop, lighter layers for the ride home.
• ✅ Midweek: Give new plantings one deep watering, and check ponds, troughs and hay.
• ✅ Before any burn: Get the free same-day permit, burn small in early afternoon, and stay with it until it’s dead out.
• ✅ Thursday: Last day of the current Canada goose segment, and the new drought map comes out.
• ✅ Traveling east? Check the coastal forecast before you go.
• ✅ On the calendar: Young Sportsman hunt Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. Clocks fall back Sunday, Nov. 1.

Practical rule: Same sunny day all week. Layer up in the morning, water what’s new, burn small only with a permit, and enjoy it.

— Dunlap.Today

📚 Plain-English Weather Glossary

• Relative humidity (RH): How much moisture is in the air compared with the most it could hold. Around 30% in the afternoon is dry enough for leaves and brush to catch fire easily.
• RH recovery: How much the humidity bounces back overnight. “Excellent” means the air gets damp again after dark, which helps calm fire danger.
• River fog: Fog that forms over rivers and creeks on clear, calm nights when cool air settles over warmer water. It usually burns off soon after sunrise.
• High pressure: A large area of sinking air that brings clear skies and light winds. When it stalls, the weather repeats day after day.
• Smoke dispersion: How well the air carries smoke up and away. “Poor” means smoke hangs low; “fair” is better.
• Fire danger statement: A notice from the Weather Service when wind, low humidity and dry fuels combine to make fires spread easily.
• Burn permit: A free, one-day permit from the Tennessee Division of Forestry, required Oct. 15 through May 15 to burn leaves or brush outdoors outside city limits.
• Moderate drought (D1): The first true drought level on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Ponds and pastures start to feel it.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Will it rain at all this week?

Not according to the current forecast. Dunlap’s National Weather Service forecast shows sunny skies and a 0% chance of rain every day through Sunday.

Do I need to cover plants tonight?

Probably not in the valley, where tonight’s low is forecast near 44. Morristown says patchy frost is possible over the next couple of mornings in parts of the plateau and mountains, so higher and low-lying frosty spots may want to check.

Is there a burn ban in Sequatchie County?

No. Tennessee’s burn-ban page says there are no active burn bans in the state. You still need a free same-day permit to burn leaves or brush through May 15.

Why couldn’t people in West Tennessee get permits last weekend?

WBBJ-TV reported that a fire danger statement was in effect there, so the Division of Forestry did not issue permits in eight counties. The state pauses permits when wind, low humidity or dry debris make burning risky.

How dry is it, really?

Chattanooga is about 3 inches below normal since Sept. 1 and about 9 inches behind for the year, even though October has been slightly wetter than normal so far. All of Sequatchie County is in moderate drought on the latest Drought Monitor.

When will the leaves peak?

Tennessee State Parks suggests late October for the Cumberland Plateau. In a typical year, Chattanooga’s color peaks around Nov. 2, according to Leaves.com.

When do the clocks change?

Sunday, Nov. 1, at 2 a.m. Clocks go back one hour.

🔗 Other Resources

• National Weather Service: Dunlap forecast
• National Weather Service Morristown
• Morristown fire-weather forecast
• U.S. Drought Monitor: Tennessee
• BurnSafeTN: free burn permits
• Tennessee burn permit rules
• Tennessee burn-ban status
• Tennessee State Parks: where and when to see fall color
• TWRA hunting seasons summary
• Sequachee Valley Electric Cooperative outages

🌤️ A Week Made for Porch Sitting

There’s nothing scary in this forecast. No storms, no watches, no burn bans, just cool mornings, warm afternoons and a lot of blue sky. The only thing to keep in mind is that the ground is thirsty and the air is dry, so a little care with water and burn piles goes a long way. Grab a cup of coffee, enjoy the colors as they come in, and let the weather do its same old pleasant thing.

We’ll keep watching the sky so you don’t have to. Read Dunlap.Today for calm, practical weather in plain English.