💵 Saturday Money Check: The New Grocery Forecast Eases a Little, November's Power Fuel Charge Ticks Up, and the Fed Meets Wednesday

Or: A Slightly Kinder Grocery Bill, a Few More Dollars on the Light Bill, a Steady Tank, and a Quiet Fed Week

By Thomas Seest, Dunlap.Today · Saturday, October 24, 2026

Saturday morning is for sorting the mail pile on the kitchen table: keep this, toss that, and stick the important one under the salt shaker so you don’t forget it.

Here’s what’s in the money pile this weekend: the USDA’s new grocery forecast came out Friday, and it says food at the store should end the year about 2.3% higher than last year, a little less than last month’s guess, with beef, dairy and eggs cooling; the fuel part of TVA-area electric bills goes up about 0.6 cents a kilowatt-hour for November billing cycles; Chattanooga gas held steady at about $3.77; relief for farmers using dyed diesel looks set to run through December; and the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision Wednesday. Plus money dates for the fridge, including a grant deadline Monday.

The grocery forecast and the Fed are national. The electric fuel charge comes from TVA, which supplies power across our region. Gas prices are Chattanooga-area and statewide, and the diesel relief is a Tennessee program. We’ll say which is which as we go.

⏱️ What this means for you in 30 seconds

• Groceries (national): Now forecast up 2.3% for 2026, down from 2.4% last month. Beef +8.7%, eggs about 29% cheaper, dairy slightly cheaper. Coffee is up about 7% from a year ago.
• Electric bill: TVA’s fuel charge rises from about 2.2¢ to about 2.8¢ per kilowatt-hour for November billing cycles. That’s roughly $6 more per 1,000 kWh.
• At the pump (Sat., Oct. 24): Chattanooga regular about $3.77, Tennessee about $3.83, national about $4.30.
• Farm diesel: The state’s dyed diesel relief, set to end Oct. 31, is reported to be extended to Dec. 31. Formal word is expected next week.
• Fed: Decision Wednesday, Oct. 28. Most economists expect no change this time.

🛒 The New Grocery Forecast Is In, and It’s a Touch Gentler

We told you Friday that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly Food Price Outlook was due any day. It arrived, dated Oct. 23. Here’s how the new October forecast compares with September’s:

• Grocery store food: now expected to cost about 2.3% more in 2026 than in 2025, down from 2.4%. For 2027, the forecast dropped to about 1.0%, from 1.8%.
• Beef and veal: now about +8.7% for the year, down from +9.4%. Beef prices actually fell 1.3% from August to September.
• Eggs: still about 29% cheaper than last year.
• Dairy: now forecast down about 0.4%, after last month’s nearly flat forecast.
• Coffee: about 7.1% higher in September than a year earlier. Sugar and sweets, mostly candy, are forecast up about 6.5% this year, and fresh vegetables about 5.8%.
• Eating out: still forecast up about 3.5%.

In September, grocery prices were 1.8% higher than a year before. These are national numbers, not the shelf price at any one Valley store.

What it means for you: Grocery prices are still climbing, but more like a slow walk up the church steps than a run up Signal Mountain. The friendliest aisles right now are eggs and dairy, and beef is easing a little from its high. The pricier spots are coffee, candy and fresh vegetables. A store-brand can of coffee, or a bag of frozen vegetables in place of fresh, can help balance the cart.

👉 Read more (USDA Food Price Outlook, October 2026)

💡 The Fuel Part of the Light Bill Goes Up a Bit in November

Every TVA-area power bill includes a “Total Monthly Fuel Cost”: the cost of the coal, natural gas and uranium TVA buys to make electricity. It changes every month. TVA says some local power companies show it as its own line on your bill, while others fold it into the energy charge.

For November, TVA’s statement for Bristol Tennessee Essential Services, one Tennessee power company that posts these figures online, shows the residential fuel charge rising to about 2.80 cents per kilowatt-hour, from about 2.20 cents in October. It applies to billing cycles that start on or after Nov. 1. Here at home, Sequachee Valley Electric Cooperative lists its October fuel charge at about 2.23 cents. SVEC hadn’t posted its November number when we checked Saturday morning, and each utility’s figure can differ a little.

What it means for you: If SVEC’s fuel charge moves about the same amount, a home using 1,000 kilowatt-hours would pay roughly $6 more in fuel charges for a month. That’s about the price of a sausage biscuit and coffee, not a new roof. November is still a milder “transition” month for TVA’s base rates, and the higher winter rates start in December. Now is a good time to change the furnace filter and ask SVEC about budget billing, which evens out payments over the year. Need heating help? SETHRA in Dunlap takes LIHEAP questions at 423-949-2191.

👉 Read more (TVA fuel cost statement for November, via BTES) · SVEC fees and rates · TVA: What is the Total Monthly Fuel Cost?

⛽ Saturday Pump Check: Chattanooga Holds at About $3.77

AAA’s Saturday, Oct. 24, reading puts Chattanooga (TN only) regular at about $3.77 a gallon, the same as Friday. That’s about 8 cents above a week ago but about 20 cents below a month ago. Cleveland is about $3.77 too. Statewide, Tennessee averages about $3.83, a little under yesterday and about 3 cents below a week ago. The national average is about $4.30.

Chattanooga diesel rose about 4.6 cents overnight to about $5.72, ending a three-day slide, but it’s still about 34 cents below a month ago.

What it means for you: A 15-gallon fill-up at the Chattanooga average runs about $56.51, about $18 more than a year ago, when regular was about $2.54. Prices sat still overnight, like a cat in a sunny window. There’s no need to rush or wait. Fill up when you need to, and check a gas app first because stations vary.

👉 Read more (AAA Tennessee gas prices)

🚜 Farm Diesel Relief Looks Set to Run Through December

Earlier this month, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, at Gov. Bill Lee’s direction, stopped enforcing dyed diesel limits for people in farming and forestry through Oct. 31. That lets them use untaxed, dyed diesel from on-farm storage in road vehicles when hauling crops, livestock, timber, and farm or forestry supplies and equipment.

On Friday, WSMV reported that the governor has agreed to extend that relief through Dec. 31. NBC39 reported that formal confirmation of the state extension is expected next week, and that federal penalty relief is already in place through December.

What it means for you: If you farm or cut timber in the Valley, this could save real money while diesel is still near $6 a gallon statewide. Until it’s official, treat Oct. 31 as the date on the books, and keep an eye out for the Department of Revenue’s notice. It’s like waiting on the weatherman before you cut hay: good news is coming, but check the official word.

👉 Read more (WSMV: Dyed diesel relief extended) · NBC39: Extension expected · Department of Revenue memo (Oct. 8)

🏦 Fed Week: A Rate Decision Wednesday, Probably No Change

The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, Oct. 27–28. Its main rate sits at 3.75% to 4.00% after a small increase in September. In a Reuters poll taken Oct. 16–20, 94 of 100 economists expected the Fed to hold rates steady this week, and all 100 expected an increase at the December meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a news conference Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. Central.

Mortgage rates, which follow their own path, eased this week: Freddie Mac’s average 30-year rate was 7.32% on Thursday, down from 7.40%.

What it means for you: If the Fed holds, nothing changes at your bank this week. Any increase later would mostly touch credit cards and savings accounts: card rates could go up a little, and savings could pay a little more. Fixed-rate loans you already have don’t change. The best move is the same as always, like keeping the woodpile stacked before cold weather: pay down card balances when you can, and make sure your savings is earning a fair rate.

👉 Read more (Reuters poll: Fed expected to hold in October) · Federal Reserve meeting calendar · Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates 7.32%

📅 Put These on the Fridge: Money Dates Ahead

• Monday, Oct. 26, 4 p.m. Central: Last call for TVFCU’s Idea Leap small-business grants (up to $50,000; Sequatchie County is in the Chattanooga region).
• Wednesday, Oct. 28: Social Security deposits for birthdays on the 21st–31st. The Fed’s rate decision that afternoon.
• Thursday, Oct. 29: Freddie Mac’s next weekly mortgage rates.
• Friday, Oct. 30: SSI’s November payment arrives early because Nov. 1 is a Sunday. It’s November’s money, not extra.
• Saturday, Oct. 31: Current end date for dyed diesel relief, unless the extension becomes official.
• Sunday, Nov. 1: November electric billing cycles begin with the new fuel charge. Marketplace (HealthCare.gov) open enrollment begins.
• Monday, Dec. 7: Last day of Medicare open enrollment, about six weeks from today.

What it means for you: Copy these onto the calendar by the phone. A pencil remembers better than any of us.

👉 Read more (Social Security 2026 payment schedule) · TVFCU Idea Leap Grant · HealthCare.gov deadlines

✅ Your Wallet Checklist for This Week

• ✅ On the grocery list, lean on eggs and dairy. Go easy on coffee and candy, where prices are up the most.
• ✅ Change the furnace filter and ask SVEC about budget billing before winter rates start in December.
• ✅ Fill up when you need to. Chattanooga is averaging about $3.77, so check a gas app first.
• ✅ Farm or cut timber? Watch for official word on the dyed diesel extension. Until then, Oct. 31 is the date.
• ✅ Own a small business? The Idea Leap grant closes Monday at 4 p.m.
• ✅ Carry a credit card balance? Pay down what you can before any rate increase later this year.
• ✅ Anyone who says you won a prize but must buy a prepaid card to collect it is a scammer. The BBB warned about these calls in Middle Tennessee this week.
• ✅ On Medicare? You have until Dec. 7 to compare plans. Free help: TN SHIP, 1-877-801-0044.

Practical rule: Small changes on a lot of bills add up, so check the ones you pay every month, not just the big ones.

— Dunlap.Today

📚 Plain-English Money Glossary

• Food Price Outlook: The USDA’s monthly forecast of how much food prices will rise or fall over the year.
• Food at home: Food bought at grocery stores and supermarkets, as opposed to restaurants.
• Total Monthly Fuel Cost: The part of a TVA-area electric bill that covers the fuel used to make power. It changes every month.
• Kilowatt-hour (kWh): The unit your electric meter counts. Running a 1,000-watt space heater for one hour uses 1 kWh.
• Transition period: TVA’s milder-rate months (October and November, and April and May) between the higher summer and winter rates.
• Budget billing: A plan that spreads your yearly electric costs into more even monthly payments.
• Dyed diesel: Diesel colored red to show it’s tax-exempt, normally for off-road use in farm and logging equipment only.
• Federal Reserve (the Fed): The nation’s central bank. Its rate decisions affect what banks charge for loans and pay on savings.
• AAA average: The daily average price AAA reports for regular gas in a state or metro area. Individual stations can be higher or lower.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Does the new grocery forecast mean prices are going down?

Mostly no. Overall, prices are still going up, just a little slower than expected. A few things, like eggs and dairy, are actually cheaper than last year.

Why is beef still forecast up 8.7% if it got cheaper in September?

The forecast compares the whole year’s average with last year’s. Beef was high for much of 2026, so even with a recent dip, the yearly average stays higher.

How do I find the fuel charge on my SVEC bill?

Look for “TVA Total Monthly Fuel Charge” or a similar line. If you don’t see it, call SVEC and ask. Some utilities include it in the energy charge.

Is my electric rate going up for good?

No. The fuel charge goes up and down every month with TVA’s fuel costs. November’s is higher than October’s, but it could fall again later.

Who qualifies for the dyed diesel relief?

People in farming and forestry, using a vehicle on Tennessee roads to harvest and haul crops, livestock or timber, or to move farm and forestry supplies and equipment. Check the Department of Revenue’s notice for details.

Will the Fed’s decision change my mortgage payment?

Not if you have a fixed-rate mortgage. Adjustable-rate loans and credit cards are the ones that tend to follow the Fed’s moves.

When will the next grocery forecast come out?

The USDA usually updates it once a month, around the 25th. We’ll pass along the November numbers when they’re posted.

📎 Other Resources

• USDA Food Price Outlook (updated Oct. 23)
• TVA fuel cost statement for November 2026 (via BTES)
• TVA fuel cost statement for October 2026 (via BTES)
• Sequachee Valley Electric Cooperative fees and rates
• TVA: Total Monthly Fuel Costs explained
• SETHRA Housing & Energy (heating help)
• AAA Tennessee gas prices
• WSMV: Dyed diesel relief extended
• NBC39: Tennessee may extend dyed diesel relief
• Tennessee Department of Revenue: Dyed diesel memo (Oct. 8)
• Reuters poll: Fed expected to hold in October
• Federal Reserve meeting calendar
• Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates decrease to 7.32%
• TVFCU Idea Leap Grant
• BBB warns about fake lottery calls (Wilson County Source)
• Social Security 2026 payment schedule
• HealthCare.gov: Marketplace dates and deadlines
• TN SHIP free Medicare counseling

🌿 Keep Learning, Keep Calm

This Saturday’s money news is mostly small stuff: groceries rising a little slower, the light bill nudging up a few dollars, gas sitting still, and a Fed meeting that most folks expect to be quiet. Nothing here calls for worry. Just tuck the dates under the salt shaker, change that furnace filter, and enjoy your weekend.

For more calm, practical Valley news, read Dunlap.Today, and share this with a neighbor who keeps an eye on the grocery bill.