🍂 Driest Air of the Week Today, a Calm Sunny Weekend and the First Hint of Rain Around Halloween: Your Dunlap Weather & Outdoors Week

Or: Fog Before 8, Sunny 70s Through Tuesday, Cooler Weekend Nights, Prentice Cooper Closes for Young Hunters, and Clocks Fall Back Nov. 1

By Thomas Seest, Dunlap.Today · Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Good Wednesday morning. Weather Service airport sensors show Crossville dipped to about 39 degrees with fog early this morning, and Chattanooga to about 43. Dunlap’s forecast calls for patchy fog before 8 a.m., then a sunny afternoon with a high near 76. National Weather Service Morristown’s main message this morning is short and sweet: “Dry weather dominates the forecast period, with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons each day.”

Here’s the week in one breath. Dunlap stays sunny and dry through next Tuesday, with highs from 71 to 76 and lows from 43 to 48. The weekend nights trended a couple of degrees cooler since yesterday. Morristown’s Hazardous Weather Outlook says no hazardous weather is expected through Tuesday, and there were no watches, warnings or advisories for Dunlap this morning. Today has the driest afternoon air of the week for burn piles, and there are still no burn bans in Tennessee. The news worth circling: the federal Climate Prediction Center now leans wetter than normal for Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, the first hint of rain we’ve seen in a while. Prentice Cooper closes to non-hunters this weekend, and clocks fall back Sunday, Nov. 1.

⏱️ What this means for you in 30 seconds

• Today: Fog before 8 a.m., then sunny, high near 76. Tonight clear, near 47.
• This week: Sunny every day. Highs 74, 74, 72, 71, 72, 74 (Thursday through Tuesday); lows 43 to 48.
• Rain: None through Tuesday. Odds tilt toward some rain Oct. 28 to Nov. 3.
• Burning: No bans. Free same-day permit required. Skip today if you can; the weekend is damper.
• Remember: Prentice Cooper (west of Hwy. 27) is hunters only Oct. 24–25 and Oct. 29–31.
• Clocks: Fall back Sunday, Nov. 1. Sunset jumps to about 4:47 p.m.

📅 Sunny Through Tuesday, With Sweater-Weather Weekend Nights

Morristown’s forecasters say a large ridge of high pressure to our west will slowly drift east, with high pressure to our north spreading in, “keeping our weather dry through next Tuesday.” Highs will run “not far either side of seasonal normals.” For reference, a normal Oct. 21 at the Chattanooga airport is 72 for a high and 49 for a low. Dunlap’s point forecast, updated about 6:06 a.m. Central:

• Thursday: Fog before 8 a.m., then sunny, high near 74. Night: clear, near 46.
• Friday: Sunny, high near 74. Night: clear, near 44.
• Saturday: Sunny, high near 72. Night: clear, near 43, the coolest of the week.
• Sunday: Sunny, high near 71. Night: mostly clear, near 44.
• Monday: Sunny, high near 72. Night: partly cloudy, near 48.
• Tuesday: Mostly sunny, high near 74.

What it means for you: This week runs like a well-kept tractor: same start, same idle, no surprises. Winds stay light, so it’s a fine stretch for hauling hay, spreading lime, fixing fence or getting the garden put to bed. School mornings, the fog is the only thing to watch. Sunrise in Dunlap is about 6:53 a.m. Central, so the earliest bus stops are still in half-light. Low beams, slow down near the river and creek bottoms. Friday-night ballgames and weekend porch evenings will cool fast after sunset, so take a jacket. The plateau tops usually run a few degrees cooler than the valley floor.

👉 Read more (Dunlap 7-day forecast) · NWS Morristown forecast discussion · Hazardous Weather Outlook

🔥 Today Is the Driest Burn Day of the Week. The Weekend Is Kinder.

Morristown’s fire-weather forecast for the Sequatchie County zone puts this afternoon’s lowest humidity at about 22 to 27 percent, roughly 9 points drier than yesterday. It improves to about 29 to 34 percent Thursday, then 37 Friday, 41 Saturday, 44 Sunday, 42 Monday and 41 Tuesday. Winds stay light all week. One more detail from the same forecast: smoke “dispersion” is rated poor today and very poor tonight, meaning smoke tends to hang low instead of rising and drifting off. Thursday afternoon improves to “generally good.”

Tennessee’s burn-ban page still read this morning: “Currently, there are no active burn bans in the State of Tennessee.” That’s statewide. Locally, you still need a free same-day permit from the Division of Forestry to burn leaves or brush outside city limits, through May 15.

What it means for you: Dry air and poor smoke lift together are like cooking bacon with the kitchen window shut: the fire works fine, but the smoke has nowhere to go. If the brush pile can wait, Thursday afternoon or the weekend are better bets. Get the permit at BurnSafeTN.org, in the MyTN app, or by calling 1-877-350-BURN (2876) on weekdays. Keep piles small, keep a hose and rake handy, never walk off, and have it completely out by midnight. Town residents, check city rules first.

👉 Read more (Morristown fire-weather forecast) · Burn-ban status · Tennessee burn permit rules

🌧️ The First Hint of Rain in Weeks: Odds Tilt Wetter for Oct. 28 to Nov. 3

Here’s the update worth sharing at the coffee table. The federal Climate Prediction Center’s newest 8-to-14-day outlook, issued Tuesday afternoon for Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, shades all of Tennessee as “leaning above” normal for rain, about a 33 to 40 percent chance of a wetter-than-normal stretch. Its written discussion says the wetter area “expands into the central Great Lakes region and the Southeast in week 2, with predicted precipitation later in the week-2 period.” Before then, the 6-to-10-day outlook for Oct. 26 to 30 still favors drier than normal from the central Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley and Appalachians, and both outlooks lean warmer than normal for our part of the country.

For the record, Chattanooga’s airport has 2.71 inches of rain so far in October, a bit above normal, but it’s about 3.2 inches behind since Sept. 1 and about 9.4 inches behind for the year. The U.S. Drought Monitor map from last week showed all of Sequatchie County in moderate drought and Grundy County mostly in severe drought. A new map comes out Thursday.

What it means for you: Think of this outlook like a neighbor saying, “I believe I smell rain coming next week.” It’s a lean, not a promise, and it says nothing yet about how much or which day. So no need to change Halloween plans. But if you’ve got hay to get in, a roof patch, gutters to clean or a field to bush-hog, the dry days between now and the 27th are the time. Keep giving new plantings a deep drink once a week until real rain shows up. The outlook is updated every afternoon, and we’ll keep an eye on it.

👉 Read more (Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day outlook maps) · Forecasters’ written discussion · U.S. Drought Monitor: Tennessee

🦌 Hunters and Hikers: Prentice Cooper Closes to Visitors Two Weekends

This one is local, in Marion County. The Tennessee Division of Forestry says Prentice Cooper State Forest and Wildlife Management Area holds managed deer hunts, and on those dates “the area west of State Route 27 (Suck Creek Road) is closed to all visitors except licensed hunters.” The area east of Route 27, Edwards Point, stays open. Coming up:

• Oct. 24–25 (this Saturday and Sunday): Young Sportsman gun deer hunt.
• Oct. 29–31: Muzzleloader deer hunt (quota of 250 hunters).
• Nov. 6–8: Gun deer hunt.

Statewide reminders from TWRA’s season summary: the archery-only bear season in our Transitional Zone ends Friday, Oct. 23; fall turkey and archery deer both run through Oct. 30; and the statewide Young Sportsman deer hunt is Oct. 31 to Nov. 1.

What it means for you: If you were planning a hike, climb or bike ride on the Prentice Cooper side this weekend, swap in Edwards Point or another trail, the way you’d take the back road when the main one’s closed for paving. Hunters, those dry leaves crunch like cornflakes, so move slow, and with afternoons in the low 70s, bring ice to cool meat quickly. Anyone in the woods during hunts, wear bright orange.

👉 Read more (Prentice Cooper hunt dates) · TWRA: Prentice Cooper WMA · TWRA hunting seasons summary

🍁 Leaf Lookers: The Plateau’s Turn Is Now, and the Parks Have Plans

Tennessee State Parks says East Tennessee color usually peaks “around the third week” of October, with Middle Tennessee peaking by Halloween. WVLT’s season guide puts the Cumberland Plateau’s window at Oct. 20 to Nov. 3, peaking around Oct. 27. One online foliage tracker, More Than Just Parks, says the Smokies are now just past peak and most of Tennessee peaks Oct. 28 to Nov. 7, high ground first. Those are estimates, so treat them as a ballpark. Ranger programs listed on the state parks’ calendars:

• Thursday, Oct. 22, 8:30–10:30 a.m.: “Autumn Colors at Stone Door,” Savage Gulf State Park.
• Saturday, Oct. 24, 3–4 p.m.: Pontoon Tour, Fall Creek Falls State Park.
• Sunday, Oct. 25, 5:30–6:30 p.m.: Sunset Pontoon Tour, Fall Creek Falls.
• Friday, Oct. 30, 5:30–7:30 p.m.: Stone Door Sunset, Savage Gulf.
• Saturday, Oct. 31, 9 a.m.–8 p.m.: Wild Foods Day, Fall Creek Falls.

What it means for you: Fall color is like a pot of soup coming to a simmer. The top of the plateau is bubbling now, and the valley will follow. Every one of those days is forecast sunny, so the only thing to plan around is parking. Check the park’s event page for sign-up and fees before you go, and remember the falls run low in a dry fall, so go for the overlooks and the leaves.

👉 Read more (Savage Gulf State Park events) · Fall Creek Falls events · Tennessee State Parks fall color guide

🕰️ Clocks Fall Back in 11 Days: Here’s What the Evenings Will Look Like

Daylight saving time ends at 2 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 1, when clocks go back one hour. That applies nationwide, including all of Tennessee. Using U.S. Naval Observatory times for Dunlap:

• Saturday, Oct. 31: sunrise about 7:02 a.m., sunset about 5:48 p.m.
• Sunday, Nov. 1: sunrise about 6:03 a.m., sunset about 4:47 p.m.

What it means for you: Overnight, your mornings get an hour brighter and your evenings an hour shorter. Bus stops will be in daylight again, but evening chores, walks and feeding the animals will come up on you fast, like the last inning that ends sooner than you’d think. Plan to finish outside work by about 4:30 p.m. that first week. Halloween night itself is still on daylight time, with sunset about 5:48. It’s also a good weekend for the old reminder: test smoke alarms and change the batteries.

👉 Read more (Naval Observatory sun and moon times)

✅ Your Wednesday-to-Tuesday Checklist

• ✅ Today and Thursday, before 8 a.m.: Watch for fog near rivers and creek bottoms. Low beams, slow down.
• ✅ Today: Driest air of the week. Hold the burn pile if you can.
• ✅ Thursday afternoon through the weekend: Better burn days. Free permit first, out by midnight.
• ✅ Thursday: New drought map. Stone Door autumn colors walk at 8:30 a.m.
• ✅ Friday, Oct. 23: Last day of archery-only bear season in our zone.
• ✅ Saturday–Sunday, Oct. 24–25: Prentice Cooper west of Hwy. 27 is hunters only. Edwards Point stays open.
• ✅ Before Oct. 28: Finish hay, gutters and roof jobs while it’s dry. Rain odds tilt up after that.
• ✅ Sunday, Nov. 1: Clocks fall back one hour. Sunset about 4:47 p.m.

Practical rule: Dry now, maybe rain next week. Do the outside jobs early, burn on the damper days with a permit, and set the clocks back Nov. 1.

— Dunlap.Today

📚 Plain-English Weather Glossary

• Relative humidity (RH): How much moisture is in the air compared with the most it could hold. Below about 30% in the afternoon, leaves and brush catch fire easily.
• Smoke dispersion: How well smoke rises and spreads out. “Poor” means it hangs low near the ground; “good” means it lifts and drifts away.
• 8–14 day outlook: A federal forecast of whether the period one to two weeks out will likely be wetter, drier, warmer or cooler than normal. It gives odds, not amounts or exact days.
• “Leaning above”: The outlook’s mildest tilt, about a 33 to 40 percent chance of wetter than normal. Think “a little more likely,” not “for sure.”
• Ridge of high pressure: A big dome of sinking air that keeps skies clear and storms away. It’s why we’ve been so dry.
• Burn ban: A rare state order that prohibits all open-air burning, including campfires and grills. None are in effect in Tennessee.
• Managed hunt closure: Days when a wildlife area is open only to licensed hunters, for everyone’s safety.
• Daylight saving time: The months when clocks are set an hour ahead. It ends Nov. 1, when we “fall back.”

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

Is any rain in the forecast?

Not through next Tuesday, according to Dunlap’s National Weather Service forecast. The Climate Prediction Center leans slightly wetter than normal for Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, but that’s odds, not a promise.

Will it rain on Halloween?

It’s too early to say. Halloween falls inside the “leaning wetter” window, but the outlook doesn’t pick days. Check back next week, when Oct. 31 comes into the regular seven-day forecast.

Is there a burn ban in Sequatchie County?

No. Tennessee’s burn-ban page says there are no active burn bans anywhere in the state. You still need a free same-day permit to burn leaves or brush outside city limits through May 15.

What’s the best day this week to burn brush?

Based on Morristown’s fire-weather forecast, Thursday afternoon through the weekend, when humidity is higher and smoke lifts better. Today is the driest day of the week.

Can I hike at Prentice Cooper this weekend?

Not west of State Route 27 (Suck Creek Road) on Oct. 24–25, when it’s closed to all but licensed hunters. Edwards Point, east of Route 27, stays open. The same closure applies Oct. 29–31.

Do I need to cover plants this week?

Not in the valley, based on the current forecast, with lows of 43 to 48. Saturday night near 43 is the coolest, so tender potted plants on higher ground could come inside that night to be safe.

When do clocks change, and what time will the sun set?

At 2 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 1. In Dunlap, sunset goes from about 5:48 p.m. on Oct. 31 to about 4:47 p.m. on Nov. 1.

🔗 Other Resources

• National Weather Service: Dunlap forecast
• National Weather Service Morristown
• Morristown fire-weather forecast
• Climate Prediction Center 8–14 day outlook
• U.S. Drought Monitor: Tennessee
• BurnSafeTN: free burn permits
• Tennessee burn-ban status
• TWRA hunting seasons summary
• Prentice Cooper State Forest hunt dates
• Savage Gulf State Park
• Fall Creek Falls State Park
• U.S. Naval Observatory sun and moon times
• Sequachee Valley Electric Cooperative outages

🌤️ A Quiet Week, With Rain Maybe Knocking Next Week

Nothing in this forecast calls for worry. No storms, no watches, no burn bans and no freeze, just foggy mornings, sunny afternoons and cooler nights for sleeping with the window cracked. The thirsty ground may finally get some help in early November. Until then, a little care with burn piles and a few dry-weather chores will set you up nicely. Enjoy the color while it’s here.

We’ll keep watching the sky so you don’t have to. Read Dunlap.Today for calm, practical weather in plain English.